CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — When Jose Humberto Vivas needs to trade
dollars for Venezuelan bolivars, he usually flouts the nation's rigid
exchange controls by turning to illegal currency traders.
But last
week, Vivas put a few hundred dollars in his wallet and headed to an
exchange house regulated by Venezuela's socialist government, lured by
the seemingly improbable prospect of an official rate that is more
inviting than the black market rate.
"I haven't been here in
years," Vivas said as he stood in line outside Italcambio, a normally
lifeless exchange house in downtown Caracas protected by tinted windows
and an armed security guard who inspects customers' IDs.
"There's a
long wait here . and it takes days to get the money transferred to your
account, but it might be worth it," said Vivas, who makes a living from
selling dairy products.
Little noticed amid the turmoil unleashed
by the opposition's renewed push to oust President Nicolas Maduro,
Venezuela's central bank devalued the country's currency on Jan. 28 by
50 percent, eclipsing the parallel black market rate.
The
government now buys $1 for 3,303 bolivars, while the informal market
buys them at 3,120 bolivars, according to the website DolarToday. It is
the first time the official exchange rate has been higher than that of
the black market since currency controls were put in place more than a
decade ago, analysts said.
The controls were implemented in 2003
by Hugo Chavez, the late president who initiated Venezuela's socialist
system, and have frequently made the simple task of exchanging money
into a stressful ordeal that involves searching for illegal currency
dealers, logging into websites banned by the government, and sending
wire transfers to foreign banks.
But as Maduro's government runs
out of hard currency amid an onslaught of international pressure and
economic sanctions, it is tacking in a markedly capitalist direction,
encouraging Venezuelans to sell their greenbacks to the local financial
system.
In a statement issued Jan. 29, the Central Bank described
the devaluation as an economic stabilization measure aimed at
controlling hyperinflation by undermining the black market.
Analysts
called it a desperate gambit to raise hard cash in a country now beset
by severe U.S. oil sanctions that could cost the government up to $11
billion in revenue over the next 12 months. Without one of its most
important sources of income, Venezuela will be hard-pressed to purchase
food and other imports, potentially worsening shortages and deepening
its economic collapse.
Russ Dallen, CEO at Caracas Capital
Markets, said dollars could now come into Venezuela's empty state
coffers through state-regulated wire transfers from the estimated 3
million Venezuelan migrants who have fled the country's instability. Up
until now, they have mostly used black market traders to send an
estimated $1 billion a year to loved ones, but could be enticed into the
official system if the official exchange rate stays favorable.
"They are going for the diaspora dollars," Dallen said of Maduro's administration.
The
government is also attempting to gain more dollars from rich
Venezuelans and a few straggling tourists who use their foreign credit
cards at the official exchange rate, something that would have been
unfeasible a few weeks ago.
But the strategy is controversial.
Maduro's
opponents argue that selling dollars to the government is tantamount to
funding repression. Others say the move will not eliminate the
longstanding spread between the two rates, which has often allowed
richer Venezuelans to take advantage of the distortion and pocket juicy
profits.
Asdrubal Oliveros, an economic consultant based in
Caracas, predicts the amount of money the Venezuelan government can
raise through currency markets will fall short of what it needs to
remedy its financial woes. Strict requirements mandated by U.S.
sanctions could also force some foreign banks to stop funding credit
card transactions in Venezuela altogether, as Bank of America recently
announced.
The government and its state-owned entities currently
owe around $150 billion to creditors around the world, while the
country's foreign currency reserves have fallen to just $8 billion.
Forced
to meet interest payments on the few remaining loans and bonds the
government hasn't yet defaulted on, the Maduro administration must
finance its huge budget deficit by printing even more bolivars, further
accelerating prices.
Last year, inflation in the South American country hit 1 million percent.
"Hyperinflation
is a fiscal problem," Oliveros said. "If you don't control your
expenditures and reduce deficits, you will not be able to tackle it."
Meanwhile, other obstacles could limit the central bank's efforts to raise dollars.
Currently,
it takes four days — an eternity in today's Venezuela — for the
bolivars purchased at state-regulated exchange houses to be deposited
into a person's account. Cash exchanges have been impossible for months
due to shortages of bolivar bills.
"Reliability, speed and convenience carry a lot of weight in currency exchanges," Oliveros said.
Last
week, dozens of people trying to sell small amounts of dollars and
euros at the official rate were turned away from exchange houses after
trading was suspended due to a glitch with the central bank's currency
platform.
"It's so frustrating," said Adolfo Estanford, a lawyer
who had hoped to get $20 worth of bolivars. He said he needed the money
for food and transport.
"Everything here is so improvised," he said. "I feel like I've been made a fool of."